Weekly Market Notes – June 24, 2019

Weekly_Market_Notes

For the Week of June 24, 2019

The Markets

Trading was choppy on Friday. The S&P 500 briefly reached a record high but fell by closing. All three of the major indexes fell for the day but logged strong weekly gains after the Federal Reserve indicated it may cut rates later this year. For the week, the Dow rose 2.41 percent to close at 26,719.13. The S&P gained 2.22 percent to finish at 2,950.46, and the NASDAQ climbed 3.01 percent to end the week at 8,031.71.

Returns Through 6/21/19 1 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) 2.41 15.92 11.82 17.20 12.23
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 3.01 21.05 4.13 18.36 12.95
S&P 500 (TR) 2.22 18.87 9.48 14.49 10.75
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) 0.44 5.66 7.75 2.50 2.97
MSCI EAFE (TR) 2.22 13.28 0.21 7.78 2.01

Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

Was Bad, Now Best — The worst performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2018 lost 67.1 percent. That same stock was up 107 percent YTD as of the close of trading on Friday, June 14, 2019, making it the best performing stock in the index through 24 weeks of 2019 (source: BTN Research).

Budget Review — During the first eight months of fiscal year 2019, i.e., through May 31, 2019, tax receipts were up 2.3 percent from the previous year to $2.27 trillion, while outlays were up 9.3 percent to $3.01 trillion (source: Treasury Department, BTN Research).

They Make Things — U.S. manufacturers employed 12.8 million workers as of Dec. 31, 2018, almost identical to the 12.9 million manufacturing jobs in the country as of Dec. 31, 1941. However, 264,000 new manufacturing jobs were added during 2018, the greatest annual increase since 1997 (source: Department of Labor, BTN Research).

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – Time to Review Your Insurance Policies?

You probably schedule regular physicals, dental checkups and auto inspections. Are you as vigilant in reviewing your insurance policies? There are good reasons to evaluate your homeowner’s, life and auto insurance coverage each year.

Homeowner’s insurance: Has your home increased in value? Your current policy might not provide full replacement value. Have you started a home business? It may not be covered. Have you added a pet, built a pool or bought a trampoline? Associated liabilities may not be covered. Have you added a security or water leak detection system? You may be entitled to a discount. Have you purchased valuables? You may need to add a rider. And be sure to check with your insurer if you add a roommate or occasionally rent your home out.

Life insurance: Has your family’s status changed because of a birth, marriage, divorce or job loss? You may need to add or reduce benefits or change your beneficiaries. Has your income grown? You might want to increase your coverage, so your loved ones can maintain their lifestyle if you die. Have you recently purchased a home? Make sure your coverage is sufficient to pay off a mortgage. Have you improved your health regime? You may be eligible for discounts. Have you lost your group life insurance because you changed jobs? You may need to increase your personal plan.

Auto insurance: Did you add a driver? Insurers want to know about everyone in your household who drives, although most won’t increase premiums if you only lend your vehicle to someone occasionally. Have you added a vehicle? If you don’t notify your company, they could refuse to cover a claim or renew your policy. Have you moved? Make sure your company has your current address, since many companies still mail their most important correspondence for legal reasons.

General: Aside from changes in your situation, reviewing all your policies may help you discover discounts, features or services for which you now qualify. If you have several policies with different companies, bundling a few with the same company may provide significant savings. On the other hand, if payments are automatically deducted from your bank account, you may not notice an unacceptable rate increase.

Call our office if you’d like help reviewing your financial situation or determining how much coverage you need.

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* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright June 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#2611905.1

Weekly Market Notes – June 17, 2019

Weekly_Market_Notes

For the Week of June 17, 2019

The Markets

Stocks closed lower Friday amid pressure on tech shares, continued trade issues, Middle East tensions and disappointing Chinese economic data. Improved retail sales data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve would hold off on cutting interest rates. For the week, the Dow rose 0.46 percent to close at 26,089.61. The S&P climbed 0.53 percent to finish at 2,886.98, and the NASDAQ gained 0.70 percent to end the week at 7,796.66.

Returns Through 6/14/19 1 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) 0.46 13.18 6.12 16.62 11.93
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 0.70 17.50 0.46 17.20 12.58
S&P 500 (TR) 0.53 16.29 5.87 13.91 10.57
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) 0.02 5.20 7.41 2.27 2.89
MSCI EAFE (TR) -0.26 10.83 -4.44 8.85 1.73

Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

 

Money The top 10 percent of taxpayers received 47 percent of the $10.2 trillion of adjusted gross income (AGI) earned nationwide in tax year 2016. The bottom 90 percent of taxpayers received the other 53 percent of AGI (source: IRS, BTN Research).

Who’s Buying Now? — Since Janet Yellen announced on Sept. 20, 2017, a plan to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet by having bonds mature without reinvesting the principal into newly issued bonds, the securities held outright by the Fed have declined by $575 billion to $3.7 trillion (source: Federal Reserve, BTN Research).

10 Years — June marks the 120th consecutive month of an economic expansion for the United States, tying the record set between March 1991 and March 2001. The nation has maintained records on the country’s business cycles since 1854 (source: National Bureau of Economic Research, BTN Research).

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – Buying or Renting After Downsizing

Just as few empty nesters still drive the minivans that once transported their kids and their kids’ teammates to soccer games, many no longer need or want their four- or five-bedroom home. But should they buy or rent when they downsize? That depends…

While ownership itself and the freedom to make a home uniquely their own remains important to many, baby boomers are one of the fastest growing groups of renters. There are a variety of reasons. Some want to break free from yard work, snow removal and maintenance chores. Others want to travel without worrying about their home while they’re away.

Making a choice based on emotional preference is fairly simple. Comparing financial pros and cons is complicated. For instance, it can be hard to predict rent increases in coming years. Having a home that is paid for or has a fixed monthly mortgage payment would seem to make expenses predictable – until the furnace gives out or a pipe breaks. It’s also tough to know how much property taxes and home insurance premiums will go up.

Financial commentators differ on whether buying a smaller home or renting and investing the proceeds from a home sale in stocks make more sense. There are no guarantees with either. But the value of both typically rises if held for an extended period. If the home is kept for less than 10 years, realtor fees, closing costs, moving expenses and remodeling expenses could make comparable stock investments a more attractive financial decision. Therefore, retirees moving cross-country might be wise to rent before purchasing a home to ensure they enjoy their new location. And pre-retirees and retirees should consider whether a prospective home will allow them to age in place.

Whether a home proves to be a good investment depends on multiple factors, including the original cost of the home, the national economy and the local real estate market. If it’s purchased during a real estate boom, the bubble may burst in the future. Recently, an acute shortage of affordable homes nationally has driven prices up faster than inflation and wage growth.

Unsure of whether you would like to buy or rent for your golden years? We can help you identify what is most important to you and what makes the most sense for your financial situation.

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* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright June 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#2598432.1

Go Figure – Bad News is Good News

Last week was filled with bad economic news:

  • The May jobs report came in at only 75,000 jobs added to the economy.  Both March and April figures were revised down.  More importantly, payroll gains have averaged 164,000 in 2019, a sharp decline from the 223,000 for all of 2018.  Clearly the job market is losing some steam.
  • While still at an impasse with China on trade, the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Mexico.
  • The International Monetary Fund highlighted increased risks of a global growth slowdown.

 

So what happened?  The stock markets had the most positive week since January 2019.  Go figure!

Why? I believe the market is betting that the Federal Reserve (and other central banks around the world) will come to the rescue by increasing monetary stimulus by lowering interest rates.

I’m not sure the market has this right. First, while the FED has been sounding dovish (open to cutting interest rates), my sense is that they would prefer not to cut rates now.  Second, even if they do cut rates, with interest rates already at very low levels, the amount they could cut rates would likely not be enough to offset the impact of trade and other factors impacting global growth.

If the FED doesn’t do what the market is expecting,  we likely see a swift negative reaction.  If the FED does cut rates, I think the upside is limited as the market has already priced that in.

As such, I am continuing to stay neutrally positioned, with a diversified balanced approach.  This allows us to participate in some of the gains the market has had recently, while reducing our downside risk if the market reverses.

Feel free to call if you have any questions or concerns.

Weekly Market Notes – June 10, 2019

Weekly_Market_Notes

For the Week of June 10, 2019

The Markets

Stocks jumped Friday. A weak job report appeared to fuel optimism the Federal Reserve would increase interest rates in the near future. Although economists anticipated 180,000 new jobs in May, the Labor Department reported 75,000 jobs were added. Positive sentiment pushed the Dow to its biggest weekly gain since November. For the week, the Dow rose 4.77 percent to finish at 25,983.94. The S&P gained 4.46 percent to finish at 2,873.34, and the NASDAQ climbed 3.88 percent to end the week at 7,742.10.

Returns Through 6/07/19 1 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) 4.77 12.67 5.39 15.90 11.64
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 3.88 16.68 1.40 15.99 12.37
S&P 500 (TR) 4.46 15.68 5.83 13.07 10.32
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) 0.36 5.17 7.37 2.40 2.88
MSCI EAFE (TR) 3.23 11.12 -4.43 6.39 1.73

Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

 

Gotta Start Somewhere — An estimated 40 percent of this year’s college graduates will be underemployed with their first job, i.e., they will take a job for which they are academically overqualified (source: Strada Institute for the Future of Work, BTN Research).

Are You Better on Your Own? — The average American worker who retires in 2020 will have paid $135,000 in Social Security taxes during their working lifetime, less than the $193,000 in Social Security retirement benefits they are projected to receive (source: Urban Institute, BTN Research).

Debt-Free — Forty percent of U.S. homeowners own their home free and clear of any mortgage debt or home equity loan. Of the 60 percent of homeowners with an outstanding debt balance, the median debt total is $126,000 (source: American Housing Survey, BTN Research).

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – A Living Trust Can Help Your Assets Live On

With baby boomers passing the fruits of their labor to the next generation, we are witnessing the largest transfer of wealth in history. But many boomers are concerned about how that wealth will be used once it changes hands. A living trust is one way to protect your estate assets and provide clear direction on how you would like them disbursed after your death. In addition, a living trust can eliminate the time and expense of probate, which can take years and cost thousands of dollars.

A living trust has many advantages. It prevents your assets and their disposition from becoming part of the public record during a probate settlement. Your assets will be collected and distributed from a single point using your predetermined terms and conditions. It can be used while you’re alive to control, coordinate and distribute your assets if you become disabled, ill or mentally impaired. And it can be amended anytime during your lifetime.

Because everyone’s estates and final wishes are different, there are many different types of living trusts.

  • Revocable trusts are flexible, can be amended or revoked at any time and allow you to shift your trust assets around.
  • Irrevocable trusts cannot be changed and cannot be revoked, but the assets in the trust are protected from creditors.
  • Asset protection trusts are established for a specified time. During that period, those assets cannot be accessed by creditors. Once the trust expires, the assets that go undistributed are returned to the trust holder.
  • Charitable trusts benefit a specific charity or your favorite cause. Because they help lower or bypass estate and gift taxes, they can also provide significant tax benefits.

 

To set up a living trust, you’ll need to hire an estate attorney. You don’t need a will to set up a living trust. However, a will can ensure assets not covered by the trust are also distributed according to your wishes.

If you would like to discuss in more detail how you and your loved ones can benefit from a living trust, call us to schedule an appointment. We would be happy to meet with you and your estate attorney.

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* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright June 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI# 2582085.1

June 2019 Monthly Outlook – Business Cycle in the Late Stage

The global economy is entering into a mature / late cycle stage. We see continued solid, albeit slower, growth in the US, improvement in China, low inflation in most developed countries, and a pivot towards more fiscal stimulus and more accommodative monetary policies around the globe.  Historically, late-cycle phases have ranged from 9 months to more than 2 years.  The near-term risk of recession remains low, but the outlook for 2020 is less certain.

6.3.2019_MONTHLY_OUTLOOK_CHART_1

*The diagram above is a hypothetical illustration of the business cycle. There is not always a chronological, linear progression among the phases of the business cycle, and there have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. A growth recession is a significant decline in activity relative to a country’s long-term economic potential. We use the “growth cycle” definition for most developing economies, such as China, because they tend to exhibit strong trend performance driven by rapid factor accumulation and increases in productivity, and the deviation from the trend tends to matter most for asset returns. We use the classic definition of recession, involving an outright contraction in economic activity, for developed economies. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of April 30, 2019.

US: Late-cycle dynamics clear, pace of phase progression uncertain

The US is currently displaying more key late-cycle trends than it has over the past 3 years (see chart below). However, these trends remain relatively slow moving, and some have recently stalled, including wage growth and Fed tightening. The direction and rate of change of these trends should help determine how long the current cycle extends.

The US is exhibiting key late-cycle trends, but they have been slow moving

Indicator Current trend Latest readings
Employment/wages Labor markets tighter; wages higher than 2–3 years ago Pace of improvement has stalled
Monetary policy Fed policy tighter than one year ago Fed on indefinite pause
Yield curve Flattening Flat, near inversion
Credit Some tightening of lending standards Credit accessible, spreads tight
Corporate profits Margins lower than 3 years ago Earnings boosted from tax cuts; expectations ~5% and stable
 

Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of March 31, 2019.

 

China: Better but may not be enough to help global economy

China’s outlook has improved in 2019. Due in large part to a greater shift toward fiscal and monetary stimulus, industrial production growth has begun to recover and it appears the economy may be emerging from its growth recession.

 

Europe: Stabilizing at a weak level

Labor markets have generally continued to improve in many core European economies, but consumer sentiment and consumption gains remain muted. In fact, German households have increased their savings rate over the past year, even as unemployment has dropped to cyclical lows

 

Base-case scenario: Muddling through the late cycle

Our base-case scenario is that the global economy is past its peak and most major countries are in mature stages of the business cycle. While the absolute level of global growth remains muted, leading indicators of activity have recently reflected some signs of stabilization. This environment should be generally favorable to a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.

 

Best-case scenario: Prolonged Goldilocks environment

The best of all possible worlds would be if the various trade/tariff battles get resolved successfully, which would allow business investment to pick up.  US productivity growth re-accelerated on a sustained basis, providing faster growth without stoking inflation. This could allow the Federal Reserve to stay on hold (no rate increases). This environment should be generally favorable to risk assets such as stocks.

 

Worst-case scenario: Rising recession risks

The worst-case scenario is that the global economy continues faltering. In this scenario, China’s stimulus would prove insufficient, global economic growth would remain lackluster, and the US economy would decelerate. Current market expectations that the Fed’s next move will be a rate cut would be proven correct, but this would be a response to rising recession risks. In this environment riskier assets, such as stocks, would be expected to perform worse than more defensive ones, such as government bonds.

 

The big wild card: Trade policy

The big risk that could shock the global cycle into a more challenging outcome would be the escalation of US trade tensions. The US-China trade talks have stalled.  President Trump has threatened tariffs on Mexico, even before the recently negotiated US/Mexico/Canada trade deal has been ratified, and trade negotiations are ongoing with the European Union. A return to tit-for-tat tariff increases would create stagflationary headwinds on a global basis, and they would likely weigh heavily on business and financial-market sentiment. The worse-case scenario of rising global recession risk would become more pronounced.

 

The outcome of the trade issue is highly uncertain. While I can see reasons for a deal getting done (mostly the 2020 US election), the recent actions and rhetoric make that less likely.

 

There are several key dates I am watching in June:

 

  • June 1  –   the day Chinese tariffs are implemented on $60 billion of U.S. exports
  • June 10 –  the day the recently announced tariffs on Mexico are to be implemented
  • June 19 –  the next Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate announcement
  • June 24 –  when the U.S. could outline an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese imports to be tariffed
  • June 28 –  the potential face-to-face meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 summit in Japan

 

My outlook is cautious but not bearish.  We have tightened our risk-controls but have not gone defensive.  We continue to monitor all of our indicators and will respond accordingly.

Rest assured that your portfolio is diversified and prepared for this type of market environment. Expectations of increased volatility are built into your portfolio.

We hope you find this report helpful.  Please call us with any questions.  Also, please share this report with anyone you feel it would benefit.

 

June Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  • June is LGBT Pride Month.  Let’s all work towards acceptance and inclusion of people regardless of their sexual orientation.
  • June is also National Safety month.  Schools are closing for summer and folks will be outside more so be mindful on the roads. Perhaps take a first aid or CPR course.

 

June 14th         Flag Day                  

June 17th         Father’s Day  – wishing all father’s, grandfathers, and great grandfathers a wonderful day.

June 21th         Summer begins – let’s see what Mother Nature has in store for us                   

On a personal note, the newest member of the Directional Wealth Management Team, Skyler Misa, was baptized on June 2nd.  Congratulations to the Misa family.

skylar_baptism

Sources: Fidelity Investments (AART), Investopedia Chart Advisor

 

 

Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss. Diversification does not ensure a profit or ensure against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.  Past performance is no assurance of future results.

Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. Please see a prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Information provided should not be construed as legal or tax advice.  You should discuss any tax or legal matter with the appropriate professional.