Weekly Market Notes – October 28, 2019

Weekly_Market_Notes

For the Week of October 28, 2019

The Markets

Optimism on trade talks and encouraging signs in corporate earnings propelled stocks Friday. Encouraging news included better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and a report that Washington was close to finalizing parts of a trade pact with Beijing. The S&P achieved its biggest weekly percentage gain in seven weeks, and the NASDAQ posted its biggest in eight weeks. For the week, the Dow rose 0.70 percent to close at 26,958.06. The S&P gained 1.23 percent to finish at 3,022.55, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.90 percent to end the week at 8,243.12.

Returns Through 10/25/19 1 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) 0.70 17.81 10.53 16.79 12.63
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 1.90 24.23 12.64 15.98 12.95
S&P 500 (TR) 1.23 22.54 14.02 14.41 11.26
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) -0.15 8.17 10.59 2.96 3.07
MSCI EAFE (TR) 1.26 16.15 12.31 8.16 4.64

Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

 

They’ll Be Running the Show — By the year 2025, more than 50 percent of the U.S. workforce will be millennials or younger. Millennials were born between 1981-97 and will be ages 28-44 in 2025 (source: Inc. Magazine, BTN Research).

Equity — The average loan-to-value ratio in the U.S. housing market as of June 30, 2008, was 55 percent, (i.e., the average homeowner had home equity of 45 percent). The average loan-to-value ratio in the U.S. housing market as of June 30, 2019, was 36 percent, (i.e., the average homeowner had home equity of 64 percent). (source: Federal Reserve, BTN Research).

Will You Be Financially Ready? — 49 percent of 5,923 workers surveyed in the fourth quarter of 2018 believe they will live to at least age 80. 14 percent of the workers surveyed believe they will live to at least age 100 (source: Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, BTN Research).

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – It Pays to Be Wary of Holiday Scams

Bogus charity solicitations, copycat websites and fake shipping offers – thieves often take advantage of the gift-giving season to line their own pockets. But with a few precautions, you can avoid falling victim to these common scams.

Bogus Charities: If you receive an email, postal mail piece or phone call from a charity soliciting donations, before you give, look up the charity on a website that reviews charitable organizations, such as CharityWatch.org or CharityNavigator.org. If you receive a request to donate to a crowdfunding site, such as GoFundMe.com, do not donate to anyone you don’t know, no matter how compelling their story is.

Copycat Websites and Phishing Email: Each year, more and more people buy their gifts online. But be wary of amazing deals you’ll find on social media, in your emails or through web searches. Many websites appear to be legitimate and offer great savings on popular products but are just set up to get your information. Misspellings and typos are telltale signs of fraudulent marketing materials.

In email, always hover your cursor over the sender’s web address to reveal the actual URL. Also type the URL directly into your browser rather than clicking on it and make sure all payment pages have an “s” after http in the URL to ensure the page is secure.

Shipping Scams: To avoid falling victim to shipping scams, always go directly to the shipping company’s website to track your orders. Do not trust emails or postal mail pieces claiming there is a problem with your shipment and requesting a credit card number to ensure your package is delivered. And remember, legitimate delivery people will never come to your door and request payment or a credit card number to ensure delivery of a package.

If you’re ever in doubt about any offer, it’s best to talk to someone you trust or search for product reviews, warnings and related scams online. Also, consider how you pay for goods and services. Credit cards typically have built-in fraud protection. You can also sign up to receive regular alerts about scams at ftc.gov/scams. To report a scam, go to ftc.gov/complaint.

To learn more ways to protect your personal and financial information from scams and fraudulent activities, call our office today to set up an appointment.

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* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright October 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI# 2799629.1

Weekly Market Notes – October 21, 2019

Weekly_Market_Notes

For the Week of October 21, 2019

The Markets

Stocks fell Friday; the Dow fell nearly 200 points. Several negative factors contributed to investor pessimism. Boeing and Johnson & Johnson experienced steep losses. A report showed China’s economy slowed to 6 percent in the third quarter – the slowest pace since the early 1990s. The Conference Board think tank reported the U.S. economy grew more slowly in September.  For the week, the Dow rose 1.08 percent to close at 26,770.20. The S&P gained 1.66 percent to finish at 2,986.20, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.75 percent to end at 8,089.54.

Returns Through 10/18/19 1 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) 1.08 16.99 8.08 16.57 13.06
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 1.75 21.92 8.07 15.56 13.70
S&P 500 (TR) 1.66 21.05 10.07 14.03 11.90
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) -0.25 8.34 10.89 3.01 3.04
MSCI EAFE (TR) 3.11 14.70 6.83 7.66 4.88

Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

 

A Shrinking Total — The number of publicly traded companies in the United States peaked at more than 8,000 in 1996 but has fallen to approximately 4,400 today (source: JPMorgan Asset Management, BTN Research).

Health Insurance — The average annual cost for health insurance coverage for a family plan in 2019 is $20,576, with the employer paying 71 percent of the total ($14,561) and the employee paying 29 percent ($6,015). Ten years ago, the average cost was $13,375, and the employer/employee split was 74/26 (source: Kaiser FF, BTN Research).

Most Ever — Fueled by historically low worldwide interest rates, more corporate bonds (by dollar amount) were issued globally ($434 billion) in September 2019 than in any month in history (source: Dealogic, BTN Research).

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – How to Retire Well

With longer lifespans and rising healthcare costs, many Americans are concerned about running out of money in retirement. But retiring well is still achievable. Here are a few tips to consider:

Start saving early. There’s a reason Albert Einstein said compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. Imagine a 20-year-old who puts $100 a month into a retirement fund and averages 8 percent returns. By 65, they will have around $500,000. But investments need time to grow. If a person waits until they’re 40 to start saving $100 a month with the same return, they’ll only have around $100,000 by age 65. If you didn’t start young, it’s important to make up for lost time. Catch-up provisions, which let those 50 and older contribute more to pre-tax accounts, can help.

Maximize your earnings. It’s easier to save more if you make more. If you’re not getting regular raises, ask for them or consider changing jobs every few years. Research indicates you’ll probably earn a higher income by changing jobs regularly than by getting standard raises in your current firm. You could also add income with a side gig.

Automate your savings. Have money taken out of your check before you’re tempted to spend it. Don’t leave money on the table. Make sure you contribute the full amount your employer matches to your 401(k). Why not take it a step farther and sign up for 401(k) payroll deductions that automatically increase over time?

Invest wisely. In today’s low-interest rate environment, money in savings or CDs has less potential to build wealth than investments with some risk – like stocks. The percentage allocated to stocks often varies with age, but even retirees can include some stocks to keep up with inflation. A financial advisor can help you decide what’s right for your situation.

Work longer. Staying on the job a few extra years provides multiple benefits: greater earnings, fewer years to live on your nest egg, access to an employer health plan and increasing Social Security by delaying benefits. After working a couple additional years, consider transitioning to part-time work instead of total retirement.

Whatever your age, there are always ways to improve your situation. If you’d like help creating or reviewing a written strategy for retirement saving, investing or distribution, contact our office today.

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* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright October 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI# 2786242.1

 

Weekly Market Notes – October 14, 2019

Weekly_Market_Notes

For the Week of October 14, 2019

The Markets

Stocks ended higher Friday but lower than their session highs. On Thursday, President Trump announced a partial trade deal between China and the U.S. The positive news helped the S&P break a three-week losing streak. For the week, the Dow rose 2.37 percent to close at 26,816.59. The S&P gained 2.10 percent to finish at 2,970.27, and the NASDAQ climbed 2.35 percent to end the week at 8,057.04.

Returns Through 10/11/19 1 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) 2.37 17.14 9.65 16.69 12.87
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 2.35 21.43 9.93 15.38 13.51
S&P 500 (TR) 2.10 20.38 11.12 13.88 11.55
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) -0.91 8.23 10.50 3.04 3.12
MSCI EAFE (TR) 2.75 13.30 5.59 7.14 4.48

Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

 

Health Insurance — The average annual cost for health insurance coverage for a family plan in 2019 is $20,576, with the employer paying 71 percent of the total ($14,561) and the employee paying 29 percent ($6,015). Ten years ago, the average cost was $13,375, and the employer/ employee split was 74/26 (source: Kaiser FF, BTN Research).

Counting All Stocks — Through the close of trading on Sept. 30, the market capitalization of all U.S. stocks was $32.3 trillion. At the start of the current bull market for stocks (an advance that began on March 10, 2009), the market capitalization of all U.S. stocks was $7.6 trillion (source: Wilshire, BTN Research).

Final Quarter of the Year — Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 stock index has gained an average of 4.3 percent (total return) over the final three months of the year. Nineteen of the last 25 fourth quarters (76 percent) have produced a positive total return gain (Source: BTN Research).

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – Things to Know About Medicare Open Enrollment

If you’re 65 or older and eligible for Medicare, now is the time to do your homework. Open Enrollment, Oct. 15 through Dec. 7, is the time to enroll, correct mistakes made previously on Medicare elections or upgrade your 2020 coverage. The following tips can help.

Medicare doesn’t cover everything. It also has sizeable deductibles and copayments and doesn’t cover services you expect from many insurance plans. You can supplement your coverage with a Medicare Supplement Plan (also known as a Medigap Plan) that pays for deductibles and copayments on the original Medicare plan. You could also choose to upgrade to Medicare Advantage, which provides managed, integrated healthcare. Both have advantages and disadvantages, so it pays to research which is the best option for you.

If you were diagnosed in 2019 with a serious illness and prescribed new, expensive drugs, you might want to compare your Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plan to some alternatives. You should also compare Medicare Prescription Drug Plans if you already take more than one prescription drug and watch for medications your plan may have dropped.

If you’re already in or are considering a Medicare Advantage Plan, take new health conditions into consideration. Make sure your plan’s network includes the type of specialists you need. Also, if you’ve been accepted into an assisted living facility, there are Medicare Advantage plans specifically designed for residents of these facilities.

If you were enrolled in either a Medicare Advantage Plan or Supplement plan in 2019 and the plan makes changes to the 2020 coverage, they must let you know about them in writing. Read any mail your provider sends carefully to see if copayments have increased or coverage has been reduced. Plans can also drop doctors, so make sure your current physicians are still covered.

It pays to do your homework before enrolling in a Medicare Plan. It’s also a good idea to review your financial situation. Call our office today. We can help you evaluate and make any changes to your financial plans and Medicare options to ensure the future you deserve.

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* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright October 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#2773493.1

Weekly Market Notes – October 7, 2019

Weekly_Market_Notes

For the Week of October 7, 2019

The Markets

Stocks rose Friday following a September jobs report that hit the sweet spot. The Bureau of Labor reported 136,000 jobs were added – enough to dampen recession fears but not enough to diminish expectations of a rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets later this month. The Dow and S&P still fell for their third straight week. For the week, the Dow fell 0.88 percent to close at 26,573.72. The S&P lost 0.30 percent to finish at 2,952.01, and the NASDAQ climbed 0.54 percent to end the week at 7,982.47.

Returns Through 10/04/19 1 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) -0.88 16.06 2.23 16.25 12.04
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 0.54 20.30 1.31 14.70 12.27
S&P 500 (TR) -0.30 19.59 3.83 13.39 10.70
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) 0.81 9.35 12.00 3.30 3.46
MSCI EAFE (TR) -2.16 10.74 -1.57 5.76 3.50

Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

Planning Ahead — 77 percent of private sector workers had access to and participated in employer-provided retirement benefits in March 2019. 91 percent of public sector workers, i.e., government workers, had access to and participated in employer-provided retirement benefits in March 2019 (source: Department of Labor, BTN Research).

Did You Know? — The Social Security retirement benefit of the lower paid spouse in a couple where both spouses worked is equal to the greater of the retirement benefit based upon the lower paid spouse’s work history or 50 percent of the higher paid spouse’s retirement benefit (source: Social Security, BTN Research).

It’s Time to Review — Medicare covers 59.9 million Americans, equal to two out of every 11 Americans. Medicare’s annual open-enrollment period starts Oct. 15 and runs through Dec. 7, allowing participants to make changes to their Medicare coverage. Plan options are available online on the medicare.gov website beginning Oct. 1 (source: Medicare, BTN Research).

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – October Is National Cybersecurity Awareness Month

We take our internet-based devices with us wherever we go. This constant connection has transformed our lives, but it also creates opportunities for cybersecurity threats that can compromise our important personal information. Since October is designated National Cybersecurity Awareness Month, here are a few steps to protect your identity:

Use Wi-Fi wisely. Change your home Wi-Fi password occasionally. If you need to share your Wi-Fi with guests, provide guest network access instead of sharing your password. Before using public Wi-Fi, verify the network name and exact login procedures, and avoid sensitive activities that require passwords or credit cards.

Don’t trust strangers. In public spaces, beware of individuals listening to conversations or viewing your screens. Don’t share specific personal information on social media – like your full name, address, birthday, mother’s maiden name or vacation plans. Disable location services that let anyone see where you are. Only shop secure sites that begin with https://.

Trust your suspicions. If an email doesn’t feel right – even if it says it’s from someone you know or a business you deal with – don’t respond and don’t click any links or attachments. When in doubt, contact the sender directly and ask if they sent it. NEVER click on an email link to reset a password.

Stay current. Google your name and delete old, unused accounts that come up. Use the latest security software, web browser and operating systems – sign up for automatic updates when you can. Back up data to the cloud or an external hard drive in case your device is stolen or compromised.

Keep tabs on your apps. Only download apps from trusted sources. Set your mobile device permissions to “rule of least privilege.”

Beef up your logins. Consider using a password phrase including spaces that’s unique to you. You might use the same phrase on different sites but add different symbols and numbers at the end. Consider adding two-factor identification.

To discuss more ways to secure your financial and personal information, call our office. We can help you develop a strategy to keep your information, and your finances, as secure as possible.

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* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright October 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#2763443.1

FAFSA 2020-2021

Changes to Federal Tax Forms From 2017 Tax Changes Impacts Preparation of Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA)

Beginning October 1, 2019, applicants will be able to file for the 2020-2021 FAFSA using information from your 2018 tax return. In previous years the IRS Data Retrieval Tool would be able to import data from the parent & student Federal Income tax return. The new 1040 form eliminated the existing IRS forms 1040A and 1040EZ and added a set of schedules, for those tax returns requiring more information. As usual, the left hand doesn’t talk to the right hand. So, the changes to the tax forms have not been incorporated into the FAFSA application and Data Retrieval Tool. This creates confusion and new questions on the 2020-2021 FAFSA process, that if answered incorrectly may affect the Expected Family Contribution (EFC) and therefore the amount of aid the family may receive.

If you would like more information on this issue or help in preparing your FAFSA for next year give us a call at 973-771-5120

October Monthly Outlook – The Right Question

The right question, at this stage, is not if we will have a recession in the US, but when.  The right time to prepare for potential difficulties in the economy and financial markets is when conditions are still good – like now.

The current US economic expansion entered its 11th  year in July 2019, the longest expansion in history.  However, starting in June 2019 the US economy is showing signs of slowing. This can be seen in the chart below, which shows the LEI leveling off over the last few months. Economic indicators around the world continue to point to a slowdown in the global economy as shown in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development LEI chart.

It’s not time to sound the alarm – yet.  The US remains the “cleanest dirty shirt” with economic growth slowing to around 2% per year.

Specifically, I’m watching job growth, which has slowed over the last 3 months.  We get the September jobs report on 10/4. I’m also watching how the trade wars are affecting sentiment.  In September, consumer confidence fell sharply, with a near record one-third of consumers surveyed negatively mentioning trade policies.  Trade is also affecting business sentiment, with 65% of global CFOs viewing trade policy as a negative for their organizations. But these CFOs also felt the US economy was stable.

On the investment front, I am watching corporate profits, which will start to be reported for the 3rd quarter next week.  Perhaps more importantly will be what corporations say about the profit outlook going forward. This will likely have the biggest impact on financial markets in the near-term.

The right question is “when?”.  We are preparing as though the “when” is sooner rather than later.  We are doing this by staying diversified, tightening up risk controls and staying focused on our long-term plan.  Please call if you have any questions or concerns.

We hope you find this report informative.  Please share it with anyone who you feel would benefit from the information.

 

October Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  • October is Breast Cancer Awareness and Domestic Violence Awareness month.

 

October 7th        3rd anniversary of purchasing our office building – we’d love to have you come for a visit   – 141 W Main Street Rockaway

October 8th       Yom Kippur – G’mar Hatima Tova to our clients, colleagues, family and friends who celebrate

October 14th      Columbus Day

October 15th  Medicare open enrollment    thru 12/7/18 – you can switch from original Medicare to Medicare Advantage, or vice versa. You can also switch from one Medicare Advantage plan to another, or from one Medicare Part D (prescription drug) plan to another, or drop your Medicare Part D coverage altogether. Please call us if you have any questions about your options.

October 28th   National Chocolate Day – I’m going for Godiva, how about you?

October 31st    Halloween

 

 

 

Sources:  CNBC.com, Blackstone, Nottingham Advisors, Charles Schwab

 

 

Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss. Diversification does not ensure a profit or ensure against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.  Past performance is no assurance of future results.

Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. Please see a prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Information provided should not be construed as legal or tax advice.  You should discuss any tax or legal matter with the appropriate professional.