Weekly Market Notes – February 22, 2021

For the Week of February 22, 2021

The Markets

Stocks ended a choppy week mixed. The S&P and the NASDAQ  suffered their first weekly losses this month amid rising interest rates and expectations of growing inflation. For the week, the Dow rose 0.16 percent to close at 31,494.32. The S&P dropped 0.68 percent to finish at 3,906.71, and the NASDAQ fell 1.54 percent to end the week at 13,874.46.

Returns Through 2/19/211 WeekYTD1 Year3 Year5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR)0.163.179.7010.1916.67
NASDAQ Composite (TR)-1.547.7542.5325.4626.56
S&P 500 (TR)-0.684.2317.4414.8317.59
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR)-0.57-1.803.515.463.66
MSCI EAFE (TR)0.274.0713.095.2810.39
Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond, NASDAQ, and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. (TR) indicates total return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

It’s an Index — Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was up 1.4 percent for 2020. The category food in the CPI calculation was up 3.9 percent for the year and medical care services was up 2.8 percent, but energy was down 7.0 percent last year (source: Department of Labor, BTN Research).

Let’s Shoot for More — A 65-year-old American male has a life expectancy of 18.2 years. A 65-year-old American female has a life expectancy of 20.8 years (source: National Center for Health Statistics, BTN Research).

Thought It Would Be Higher — 522,808 Americans filed bankruptcy in 2020, down 30 percent from 752,160 bankruptcy filings in 2019 (source: United States Courts, Table F-2, Bankruptcy Filings, BTN Research).

WEEKLY FOCUS – Financial Health Check

With almost two months of the new year elapsed, it’s a good time to look at how well your recent behavior aligns with your financial goals. If there’s room for improvement, you might consider applying one of these savings strategies.

Try a financial fast. Just as intermittent fasting from food has become popular among dieters and health enthusiasts, you might try a financial fast to quick start your savings. You may choose to go cold turkey, avoiding all unnecessary purchases, or to eliminate specific activities or categories of spending for a designated period of time. For instance, you could avoid shopping with credit or debit cards since researchers say customers spend less when using cash or put off clothes shopping. A financial fast can be as short as a week or extend a month or more.

Budget by the day. Another way to modify behavior is to set a daily budget and track your spending to see how it aligns when averaged over a month. Suppose you think $50 a day is a reasonable goal for non-fixed expenses, including groceries. Record your daily purchases in a spreadsheet; there’s something about seeing what you’re spending day by day that inspires discipline. If you are over goal for a week or two, try to spend less the following weeks to stay on target for the month.

Delay gratification. Before putting an item in your shopping cart (in person or online), pause for 20 seconds and ask yourself if you really need it. Better yet, wait a day and see if you still want it. It’s surprising how often enthusiasm cools after an impulse fades. For larger purchases, wait several weeks to evaluate your decision.

Time purchases. Trying to time the stock market rarely works, but many purchases are another story.You’ll usually save by buying food in season and clothing out of season. Some items are consistently on sale at certain times. Shop for mattresses in May and computers during back-to-school or Black Friday sales. Look for last year’s car models between September and December, when most new models come out.

Any of these approaches can help you resist the urge to splurge and lead to more mindful spending. Contact our office if you need more help identifying potential money-saving opportunities.

*The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright February 2021. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#3461689.1

Weekly Market Notes – February 16, 2021

For the Week of February 16, 2021

The Markets

Stocks rose Friday, thanks to a recent drop in new COVID cases and hospitalizations, stronger-than-expected earnings over the past couple weeks, and anticipation of new fiscal aid. The S&P and the NASDAQ closed at record highs. For the week, the Dow rose 1.11 percent to close at 31,458.40. The S&P gained 1.28 percent to finish at 3,934.83, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.74 percent to end at 14,095.47.

Returns Through 2/12/211 WeekYTD1 Year3 Year5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR)1.113.008.9411.0817.27
NASDAQ Composite (TR)1.749.4446.1827.6627.93
S&P 500 (TR)1.284.9418.5616.2118.42
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR)-0.13-1.234.445.623.81
MSCI EAFE (TR)2.375.0413.595.8210.88
Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond, NASDAQ, and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. (TR) indicates total return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

Jobs — The Congressional Budget Office forecasted on Feb. 1 that the number of employed Americans (150 million as of Jan. 31) will not recover to its pre-pandemic level of 158.7 million until 2024 (source: CBO, BTN Research). 

Global Trade Rebounds — After declining for 10 months during the 2020 pandemic, the monetary value of goods shipped worldwide in November 2020 exceeded its previous high-water mark achieved in December 2019 (source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, BTN Research).

Nothing — 76 percent of 619 millennials surveyed in the fourth quarter 2019 do not believe Social Security will exist when they retire. Millennials were born between 1981-97 and are ages 24-40 in 2021 (source: Transamerica, BTN Research).

WEEKLY FOCUS – Choosing an Executor for Your Will

Most of us recognize the importance of creating a thorough, well-reasoned estate plan. But we may not give adequate thought to choosing an executor to carry out the provisions of our wills. It’s all too easy to default to a relative without objectively weighing their qualifications or the challenges they may face. Because of the importance and potential complexity of the executor’s role, it’s wise to answer multiple questions before making your choice.

Will they be around? You probably shouldn’t select someone who is older than you or in questionable health. To be on the safe side, name an alternate in case your primary executor is unable to fulfill the role. This is usually a better option than co-executors. Although it may seem sharing responsibilities could lighten the load, it often complicates decisions, paperwork, and banking activities.

Are they local? Some states don’t allow out-of-state executors unless they are a relative or a primary beneficiary. Many states impose special rules for non-resident executors or require them to obtain a bond. An executor who lives outside the area may also find it more difficult to maintain the deceased’s property.

How capable are they? A business or legal background is helpful but not necessary. Executors can, and often should, work with an attorney and an accountant. Honesty, intelligence, discipline, organizational skills, and the ability to communicate well are essential.

Are they willing? Never name an executor without asking their permission.

Are they still the right choice? Just as you do with beneficiaries, it’s important to review your decision periodically in case something has changed. Perhaps there has been a divorce or the person you designated has developed a health condition.

Should you consider a professional? You may want to name a third-party executor if you have a blended family, your family dynamics are difficult, you want to make things easier for a bereaved spouse, or you don’t have a suitable relative or friend. A bank, trust company, or a professional who has experience dealing with estates can serve as an executor. Executor fees vary from state to state but often range between one and five percent of the estate.

Estate planning can be very involved, and it’s crucial to get it right. We are happy to work with you, your attorney, and your tax professional to find solutions for your situation. 

Securities America and its representatives do not provide legal advice; therefore it is important to coordinate with your legal advisor regarding your specific situation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright February 2021. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#3453509.1

Weekly Market Notes – February 8, 2021

For the Week of February 8, 2021

The Markets

Stocks rose Friday amid optimism around earnings, stimulus talks, and the vaccines rollout. The three major indices posted their best weekly gains since November; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at record closing highs. For the week, the Dow rose 3.90 percent to close at 31,148.24. The S&P gained 4.67 percent to finish at 3,886.83, and the NASDAQ climbed 6.04 percent to end at 13,856.30.   

Returns Through 2/05/211 WeekYTD1 Year3 Year5 Year
Dow Jones Industrials (TR)3.901.878.7911.1116.72
NASDAQ Composite (TR)6.047.5747.0327.0427.35
S&P 500 (TR)4.673.6118.7015.8517.95
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR)-0.39-1.114.845.493.87
MSCI EAFE (TR)2.751.6610.364.229.77
Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond, NASDAQ and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. (TR) indicates total return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.

Seller’s Market — There were 1.07 million existing homes for sale nationwide as of Dec. 31, 2020. Two years earlier, on Dec. 31, 2018, there were 1.53 million existing homes for sale nationwide. Ten years earlier, on Dec. 31, 2010, there were 3.02 million existing homes for sale nationwide (source: National Association of Realtors, BTN Research).

Relief Dollars — 36 percent of stimulus payment money received by Americans from the March 2020 CARES Act was put into savings, while 35 percent was used to pay down debt (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, BTN Research).

Going My Way? — The three most popular states to move to during 2020 were Tennessee, Texas, and Florida. The three states with the greatest outflow of people during 2020 were California, Illinois, and New Jersey. The rankings are based upon more than 2 million rentals of moving trucks last year that involved a one-way interstate movement of furnishings, personal possessions, and clothing (source: U-Haul Migration Trends 2020, BTN Research).

WEEKLY FOCUS – Contemplating a Second Career

When you were a child, you dreamed about what you’d do when you grew up. If you’re middle aged, you may be dreaming about what you’ll do when you retire. Retirement looks different today than it once did, with second careers becoming more and more popular. According to a Federal Reserve Board study, one third of those who retire eventually return to work on either a full- or part-time basis.

That’s not surprising. With average life expectancies around 80 years and many living comfortably to age 90, retirees have time to create a second act, which encompasses more than hobbies, golfing, or traveling. Retirees who don’t have enough outside interests may miss the social interaction and the sense of accomplishment of working. A second career can keep seniors’ minds sharp, offer a sense of connection, and provide the means to indulge in some added luxuries.

With less necessity to earn a certain level of income, retirees are free to do something new or make a difference. Many choose to address social problems by working with one of the nation’s 1.5 million nonprofits. Others teach, watch pets, or go into sales. Still others become entrepreneurs, consultants, or career coaches. Bureau of Labor research shows older workers have higher rates of self-employment than their younger counterparts.

Work flexibility is another advantage second careers have over first careers. Retired workers can decide how much they want to work and when. By leveraging the professional and interpersonal skills they’ve developed over the years, retirees can find a situation they find personally fulfilling, one that allows them to make new friends, meet new challenges, and achieve an optimal balance of work and leisure.

The best time to plan a second career is while you’re still working in your first career. Take time to research your aspirations and the market. Talk to people working in a role you’re interested in. Ask to job shadow. Expand your network. Try living on a lower income as a trial run. Build your skills by volunteering or taking classes.

We’re here to help you achieve your goals. Whether you’re looking forward to traditional retirement or a second career, we can help you evaluate your financial situation, so you can make the decision that’s best for you.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia, and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright February 2021. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#3442715.1

February 2021 Monthly Outlook – The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

My outlook right now reminds me of a classic spaghetti western from the late 1960s.

“The Good”

The spike in Covid that started right after Thanksgiving and continued through the holidays has started to abate.  Cases reported Sunday January 31st  were the lowest since 11/9, the 7-day average cases were the lowest since 11/14, and hospitalizations were the lowest since 11/29. Hospitalizations are down 14.3% week-over-week, the fastest decline since 6/4.  Source:  Bespoke Investment Group.

And while the distribution of the 2 existing Covid vaccines has been less than adequate so far, a 3rd vaccine is likely to be approved in the next couple of weeks.  The sooner the majority of us get vaccinated the sooner the economy can truly get back on track.  The “Good” is that the trend is finally going in the right direction again.

“The Bad”

The slower-than-expected Covid vaccine rollout coupled with a continued rise in cases and restrictions on activity across the country, held back growth in the fourth quarter.  However, activity is projected to rebound strongly later in the year, once vaccines are more widely distributed and the economy can get back to some semblance of normal.  “There’s nothing more important to the economy now than people getting vaccinated,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on January 27th.

2020 GDP fell by 3.5%, the worst year since the end of WW II.  Despite a sizeable number of people getting back to work, we still have some 4.8 million people of unemployment and another ~5 million small business owners receiving government assistance.  The “Bad” is that the holiday gathering surge in Covid has really stalled the economic recovery, which will likely impact the early part of 2021.

The “Ugly”

There remains a wide gulf between the Covid relief package proposed by the Biden administration and a proposal from 10 moderate Republican Senators.  If both sides aren’t willing to compromise, the partisan divide in Washington likely continues.  This would mean potential delays in getting additional funding for vaccine rollout and money to support those unemployed and small business owners.  Benefits from the last Covid relief package expire in mid-March.  The political environment remains the “ugliest” thing we have to face.

So what does it all mean for you?

I expect volatility to be higher than we have seen over the last several months.  I am concerned that any delay in vaccine rollout and/or more government stimulus has the potential to lead to a double-dip recession in the economy.  I am also concerned that the financial markets are over-extended on the anticipation of a positive outcome to these 2 items, and as such are susceptible to a pullback over the next few months.  However, I expect any pullback to be moderate in scope and likely to be a good thing for the markets long-term.

Here’s an updated chart that compares this new bull market versus the ’82 and ’09 bulls. Now, if history repeats, the next several months could be due for a break or consolidation.

We have tightened up our risk tolerances a bit and remain balanced in our approach – looking out for problems to avoid but also opportunities to take advantage of.

I hope this information is helpful.  Please feel free to share it with family and friends.

P.S. Thank you for your referrals. They are making a big difference in my practice. Feel free to share my name with your friends on Facebook or LinkedIn.

I want to extend a special thanks to clients & colleagues who have recently referred us to family and friends:  Greg & Valerie W, Vic & Carol C.

February Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  • February is Black History Month.  Let’s all strive for understanding and acceptance for people of all colors, nationality, and religions.

February  2nd                Groundhog Day – yay he didn’t see his shadow. No let’s hope he’s reliable!

February 7th                  Super Bowl Sunday – please watch safely (masks and social distancing)

February 14th                Valentine’s Day   

February 15th                 Presidents Day

February 16th                 Mardi Gras

Sources:  Bespoke Investment Group, LPL Research, CNBC.com

Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss. Diversification does not ensure a profit or ensure against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.  Past performance is no assurance of future results.

Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. Please see a prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Information provided should not be construed as legal or tax advice.  You should discuss any tax or legal matter with the appropriate professional.