July 2021 Monthly Outlook – “Halftime Score” & “Making Predictions”

First, I want to wish you and your loved ones a safe and happy July 4th holiday. Hopefully it is close what we use to consider “normal”.

If felt that 2 quotes were in order for July!

There’s not many things less important than the score at halftime.” – Bill Self

This one relates to both the markets and the virus.  The financial markets posted very solid growth in the first half of 2021 – putting in the 2nd best first half since 1998. But that score won’t matter depending on what happens over the rest of the year.  The same is true about the virus – major progress has been made but vaccine hesitancy and the Delta variant and future new variants could risk the economic reopening and a stock market decline.

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra

This quote also relates to both the markets and the virus. With the markets and the economy, the solid growth so far this year means stock valuations are high, investors have piled into stocks and inflation is rising.  The high bar set in the first half of the year could lead to disappointment which could serve to limit growth over the next 6 months. As for the virus, the test will come in the fall when schools reopen and people move back inside.

My outlook is that the economy continues to reopen, albeit at a slightly slowing pace.  This should be supportive of continued growth in stocks, again at a slower pace.  At the moment, we remain broadly diversified with a tilt towards stocks over bonds but will adjust accordingly as we move forward.

Please let us know if you have any questions or concerns.

For the historically minded, March 16, 2020 will be added to the list of key dates in Internet history:

  • 1972: Email invented
  • 1975: Personal computer invented
  • 1983: The Internet is created
  • 1989: The World Wide Web is born
  • 2020: The work world went virtual. You were there!

July Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  • July is National Picnic and National Parks month – please enjoy being outside with family and friends.

July 1st             Bureau of Internal Revenue (the IRS) founded in 1862– betcha nobody celebrates this birthday 

July 4th            Independence Day  – it will certainly be a different kind of celebration this year

July 11th          My daughter Ryan’s birthday

July 23rd         National Ice Cream Day   – Breyers vanilla with Hershey’s chocolate syrup is my go-to

I hope you find this information helpful.  Please share it with family and friends.

Best regards

Jim

Sources:  Nottingham Advisors, CNBC

Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss. Diversification does not ensure a profit or ensure against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.  Past performance is no assurance of future results.

Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. Please see a prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Information provided should not be construed as legal or tax advice.  You should discuss any tax or legal matter with the appropriate professional.

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